IPad Boom Strains Lithium Supplies, Lifts Prices

Investors from JPMorgan Chase & Co. to BlackRock Inc. are trying to make money from the exploding popularity of iPads and increasing sales of hybrid cars by investing in producers of lithium for batteries.

Prices for the conductive metal, the lightest in the periodic table, have tripled since 2000 in a market now worth $1 billion a year as uses expand in vehicles, ceramics, electronics and lubricants. Apple Inc. (AAPL) (AAPL) and Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), maker of the Prius electric-gasoline car, have few alternatives as they pursue higher performance and mobility, leading Dahlman Rose & Co. analysts to forecast lithium demand will double by 2020.

Talison Lithium Ltd. (TLH), whose shares have gained 22 percent in the last month, together with Soc. Quimica & Minera de Chile SA, Rockwood Holdings Inc. and FMC Corp. (FMC) (FMC), account for almost 95 percent of world supply. Rio Tinto Group (RIO), the third-biggest mining company, may join the largest suppliers if it goes ahead with a mine in Serbia it says is capable of producing 20 percent of global output of the metal.

“There are some companies now that we think are attractive to get a hold of lithium exposure,” Evy Hambro, who manages about $13 billion in mining stocks for BlackRock in London, said in an interview. “We’ve got a small exposure today and we’re looking for some more,” he said without naming any companies.

Demand for lithium-ion rechargeable batteries out of Asia has helped prices climb threefold in the last 12 years, London- based Roskill Information Services Ltd. analyst Robert Baylis said. Global use doubled from 2000 to 2011 according to Roskill, which has recently consulted on six lithium projects.
Lithium Oligopoly

The advantage of lithium-ion over other battery types is that a typical cell can generate more electricity than competing cells like such as lead-acid. There is about 1.7 grams (0.6 ounces) of lithium carbonate equivalent in a mobile phone, 2.1 grams in a smart phone and 20 grams in a tablet, according to Dahlman Rose.

There will be a “step change,” in the global lithium industry in 2016 or 2017 when electric cars became more commonplace, Rockwood Chief Executive Officer Seifollah Ghasemi said. Hybrid electric vehicles that are fitted with a lithium- ion battery contain about 1.3 kilograms (2.9 pounds) of the material, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles have about 12.8 kilograms, while an electric vehicle uses about 19.2 kilograms.

The four-strong lithium “oligopoly has the capacity to significantly ramp supply higher, but it will take time and significant capital to accomplish,” Dahlman Rose analysts Anthony Young and Anthony Rizzuto said in a May 16th report. “There are a limited number of known high-grade resources that can be economically extracted and there has not been a new lithium mine constructed in the last 25 years.”
Biggest Producer

Global consumption may jump to 300,000 metric tons a year by 2020 from about 150,000 tons now, Dahlman Rose said in a June 7 report. Demand for lithium batteries has been growing at about 25 percent a year, outpacing the 4 percent to 5 percent overall gain in lithium, the firm said.

“Anywhere between a doubling and a tripling of demand in the next 10 years is absolutely our view,” Peter Oliver, CEO of Talison, the biggest producer, said in an interview. “Maybe a doubling is with minimal impact from electric vehicles and if electric vehicles take off in a big way in the next 10 years it could be as much as tripling.”

Neil Gregson, manager of about $6.9 billion in natural resource assets at JPMorgan Asset Management, said in an interview in London he’s studying investing in the industry. “You can’t see any reason why that won’t be a high growth market for many, many years. It’s a very interesting area.”
Ponce, Kravis

Rio is researching the development of its Jadar lithium- boron operation at a time when other suppliers are expanding output to meet rising demand. Talison, the Perth-based company with a market share of about 32 percent, completed an expansion at its Greenbushes mine in Western Australia this month that has allowed it to double production capacity.

THis aticle comes from:http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-06-19/ipad-boom-strains-lithium-supplies-after-prices-triple